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Dangerous Decade: Taiwanâ€™s Security and Crisis Management

By (author) Brendan Taylor

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Taiwanâ€™s position looks increasingly precarious, and tensions threaten to grow into a major strategic crisis. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a central pillar of his vision for China, and has ramped up diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan. Its inhabitants are increasingly estranged from the mainland, and Tsai Ing-wenâ€™s administration refuses to conduct relations with China on Beijingâ€™s terms. Taiwan could take on renewed strategic significance amid the backdrop of the deepening rivalry between China and the United States, and find itself at the centre of a Cold War-style superpower confrontation. Ble Washingtonâ€™s support and military power has historically guaranteed Taiwanâ€™s security, this is no longer a certainty. This Adelphi book argues that Chinaâ€™s military modernisation has changed the cross-strait military balance, and the ability of the US to prevail in a conflict over Taiwan may have evaporated by 2030. As China feels increasingly empowered to retake Taiwan, there is significant potential for escalation, particularly given the ambiguity of Beijingâ€™s â€˜red linesâ€™ on Taiwan. Neither Beijing, Taipei nor Washington want such a conflict, but each is challenging the uneasy status quo. Taylor calls for the introduction of a narrower set of formal crisis-management mechanisms designed to navigate a major Taiwan crisis.